Silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) is an important commercial fish in the main stream of the Yangtze River. In recent years, due to the long-term and severe disturbance of human activities, the silver carp resources in the Yangtze River have been seriously depleted. In January 2020, China began to implement a ten-year fishing ban in the Yangtze River Basin. Under this premise, the future population dynamics of silver carp requires further simulation analysis. Based on the results of the field resource survey, combined with the ecological environment and population parameters, this study carries on a simulation analysis for the population change and extinction probability of wild silver carp in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The results show that according to the current ecological environment and population parameters of the Yangtze River, the extinction probability of some silver carp populations in the Yangtze River within 100 years is 75% without considering the release and fishing. The extinction time can be reduced to 25 years under the condition of the double frequency of disasters. Furthermore, the results show that the reproductive rate of the silver carp population in the Yangtze River is closely related to the extinction probability. When the reproductive rate reduces to 50% and 55%, the population numbers could decrease by 650,000 and 620,000, respectively. The results of the environmental capacity show that the population growth rate and the population numbers could decrease gradually under the condition that the environmental capacity decreases by 1% and 2% every 10 years. Based on the above parameters, the simulation calculation shows that the minimum population of the silver carp in the Yangtze River needs to be 5 million with the survivial probability of 95% in 100 years..The above research results provide a theoretical basis for the protection and utilization of silver carp resources in the Yangtze River in the future. Combined with the field inspection experiences, it is suggested to take effective measures to protect the silver carp resources in the Yangtze River, such as reducing wading projects, adjusting the scope of protected areas and so on. [Chinese Fishery Quality and Standards, 2023, 13(2): 37-45]